7

Stakeholder engagement and how it shaped the scenarios

Three core principles/values for stakeholder Engagement

Transparency

Developing three scenarios that project energy demand and supply until 2040 and 2050 is a highly complicated process. ENTSOG and ENTSO-E recognise that it is not sufficient to merely publicise the results of scenario modelling or to provide only a general overview of the methodologies used. Therefore, the TYNDP scenarios aim to provide full transparency for all stakeholders. This entails delivering a full explanation of all assumptions that have been made and making all raw data fully accessible via the dedicated website. Our goal is to create scenarios that could be replicated plausibly by third parties.

Inclusiveness

Due to the significance of the TYNDP scenarios for EU infrastructure planning, it is important to ensure that the scenarios reflect the general opinions of EU citizens both in their scope and in their goals. ENTSOG and ENTSO-E believes that any organisation or individual who wishes to share their views on the scenario building process should be offered sufficient opportunities to do so. This is made possible through the organisation of multiple fully public stakeholder events (such as consultation workshops and subject-specific webinars) and two written stakeholder consultations.

Efficiency

The energy transition is dynamic and fast-paced. New technologies and new developments are constantly influencing the long-term outlook for the energy system of the future. ENTSOG and ENTSO-E recognises that thorough stakeholder engagement is necessary to ensure that the most up-to-date data and assumptions are utilised in the TYNDP scenarios. Interacting with stakeholders offers us the chance to learn from their experiences and to test our methodologies against real world conditions. An efficient scenario building process relies on stakeholder input.

What did we learn from the last process?

The transparency and stakeholder interaction in the TYNDP 2020 Scenario Report was deeper and more detailed than in any previous process. Stakeholder feedback played a key role in shaping the scenarios from the outset and the results and the publication of full final data sets as well as a detailed Scenario Methodology Report allowed stakeholders deeper insight into the development process and the subsequent results.

External feedback on the 2020 cycle showed that the following elements of the process were well-received:

  • The Scenario Methodology Report offering a detailed description of the condition the underlying assumptions for the scenarios and modelling process.
  • The publication of datasets on the TYNDP Scenario website allowing all users to scrutinize individual figures and break down results to a Member-State level.
  • The two public consultations (one on the storylines and one on the scenarios) giving all interested parties two occasions to offer input on the scenario building process.
  • The multiple stakeholder workshops providing regular updates on the process, detailed presentations of specific issues and offering all users a platform to ask questions and share opinions.

These elements have therefore served as the basis for further expansion of the stakeholder engagement in the TYNDP 2022 scenario building cycle. However, the lack of information on the determination of certain key parameters was criticised as untransparent. In particular, the qualitative parameters used in the Storyline Report in June 2019 were considered too vague to provide a sound assessment basis. In addition, stakeholders requested greater transparency regarding publication of consultation results.

For the 2022 scenario building cycle the Scenario Building Team have increased their ambition on stakeholder engagement as a key topic building upon the valuable lessons learned from the TYNDP 2020 Scenario Report. In order to ensure the credibility and integrity of the Scenario Report, the Scenario Building Team has focused on further enhancing transparency and stakeholder engagement.

In the development of the TYNDP 2022, the Scenario Building Team set four principal goals for the stakeholder engagement process.

Stakeholder engagement from Day One

In the 2022 Scenario Report-cycle, the Scenario Building Team agreed to include stakeholders from the very beginning. This began at the kick-off meeting for the process on 3 July 2020, where stakeholder questions were documented (via an interactive Q & A app used during the event), answered and subsequently published on the 2022 TYNDP Storyline Report website.

During the public consultation of the draft storylines, we received about 30 responses from a variety of stakeholder (including NGOs, associations, energy companies and research institutes). At the Draft Storyline Consultation Workshop on 2 December 2020, more than 60 participants were in attendance and 46 questions were received.

As with the kick-off meeting, the questions received at this event or otherwise have been answered by the Scenario Building Team and published as part of the Final Storyline Report. This stakeholder engagement has continued since completion of the Storyline Report.

In May 2021, ENTSOG and ENTSO-E hosted a dedicated workshop on extra-EU supply potentials, with the goal of sharing their own assumptions and receiving stakeholder feedback. After the publication of the Draft Scenario Report, stakeholders will once again be offered to the opportunity to share their views, both in written form (via a six-week public consultation) and via a public workshop.

Input on key parameters

During the 2020 scenario building process, ENTSOG and ENTSO-E engaged with the NGO CAN Europe to calculate a carbon budget for the two COP21 compliant scenarios. This approach gave the carbon budget more credibility and provided ENTSOG and ENTSO-E with important insights from external experts that enhanced the final scenarios. After the success of this cooperation in the TYNDP 2020 Scenario Report, ENTSOG and ENTSO-E decided to expand their interaction with external organisations.

In order to provide greater transparency on key data parameters and assumptions used throughout the scenario building process, the Scenario Building Team decided to document and publish all interactions via bilateral meetings conducted with external stakeholders (e. g. research institutions, industry organisations etc.). After publishing an initial list of bilateral meetings as part of the Storyline Report, this list has been updated for the publication of the Draft Scenario Report and made available in the download section. This documentation provides greater transparency and shows clearly the wide range of organisations that have contributed to the creation of the report.

Consultation on hard data – not just ­concepts

After criticism of the qualitative “storyline matrix” produced for the 2020 Storyline Report, the Scenario Building Team chose to completely revise this element of the scenario building process. For the 2022 Storyline Report, the Scenario Building Team included not only qualitative questions in their public consultation, but also quantitative ranges on key parameters (e. g. development trajectories for important technologies or energy carriers) based on data from reputable external studies. This gave stakeholders the opportunity to directly influence the underlying assumptions for the scenarios.

Transparent documentation of feedback and interactions

In order to ensure stakeholders that their consultation responses have been considered as part of the scenario building process, the scenario building team decided to publish all consultation feedback received in the storyline consultation of November – December 2020.

The scenario building team often receives feedback from external stakeholders outside of the planned consultation windows. While the team has always made every effort to respond to this feedback and answer any questions, it was decided that this correspondence should also be published as part of the 2022 cycle. This information is available in the download section. This publication enhances transparency and provides further insight into the process.