Improvements in the TYNDP 2022 scenarios

Both ENTSOG and ENTSO-E consistently work to improve their data, tools and methodologies between each TYNDP scenario release. As such, the TYNDP 2022 scenarios have built upon the lessons learned from each of the previous editions. Improvements for TYNDP 2022 scenarios were prioritised based on the stakeholder feedback received in previous TYNDP scenario consultations. Some of the key improvements for the TYNDP 2022 scenarios are described in this chapter. The methodologies used by both ENTSOs to produce the scenarios are presented in detail in the Draft TYNDP 2022 Scenario Building Guidelines report, which is published separately.

Proactive and early stakeholder engagement

To ensure transparency, inclusiveness and efficiency, ENTSOG and ENTSO-E have included stakeholders from the very beginning of the TYNDP 2022 scenario building process, through most notably organising three workshops and one public consultation on the scenario storylines. In addition, ENTSOG and ENTSO-E also bilaterally engaged with key stakeholders to factor in further expert knowledge.

Even more contrasting scenarios

During the public consultation of the TYNDP 2020 scenario report several stakeholders perceived a lack of differentiation between the scenarios. Although this concern was addressed in the updated TYNDP 2020 scenario report published in June 2020, ENTSOG and ENTSO-E aim to further improve this for the TYNDP 2022 edition.

To this end, ENTSOG and ENTSO-E extensively analysed the main scenario drivers to be explored in the storylines in order to ensure appropriate differentiation between the TYNDP 2022 scenarios.

A list of main drivers for the scenario building was proposed in the draft TYNDP 2022 storyline report which was released on 3 November 2020. These main drivers where publicly consulted with stakeholders as part of the draft storylines consultation. Based on stakeholder feedback the main drivers were adapted, in particular for example with regard to the energy intensity assumptions, which were considered to show too much variation. The final list of main drivers used in the TYNDP 2022 scenario building was released together with the final storyline report in on 26 April 2021.

Enhancements to the sector coupling methodology

Today the energy system is very much built along a linear value chain from primary energy to final use. Interaction between energy carriers is restricted to power generation and consuming sectors are barely involved in the design and operation of the energy system.

Such a system is easy to understand but it prevents taking advantage of new synergies between energy carriers and sectors. With the energy transition, it is necessary to build new bridges enabling a more efficient use of primary energy and providing flexibility to an energy system dominated by solar and wind energy.

While electricity and gas transmission systems are likely to stay a major component of the European energy system, it is necessary to capture the possible new dynamics at their interface with other energy consuming sectors (e.g., mobility), at various geographical scales (e.g., district heating) and with other carriers (e.g. P2G and P2L).

In order to better picture these new interfaces and their role in the energy transition, ENTSOG and ENTSO-E have established a wider and closer cooperation with the representatives of other sectors with in particular:

  • District heating with EuroHeat & Power;
  • E-mobility and prosumers with DSO associations (CEDEC, E.DSO, Eurelectric, Eurogas, GEODE);
  • Hydrogen and Power-to-Gas with Hydrogen Europe.

It has paved the way for new and innovative joint analysis and the sector coupling modelling improvements implemented in this edition that would not have been possible without the constructive mind-set and inputs of such partners.

Considerations of hydrogen system in the mid-/long term and of a wider range of electrolysis configurations

The TYNDP 2020 Scenario report brought valuable information about the amount of RES capacity to be developed to supply a growing hydrogen demand through electrolysis. It was expected that following editions will further investigate the interactions between energy carriers.

Taking into account the development of hydrogen, from a strategy and industrial perspective, and the growing need for flexibility, the improvement of hydrogen and electrolysis modelling has been considered as a priority by ENTSOG and ENTSO-E. Such improvements have materialized by the definition of a wide range of electrolysis configurations and the development of a hydrogen system on the medium and long term.

The different configurations intend to capture the different uses of hydrogen (e.g., end-use and further transformation into synthetic fuels) and the evolution of the European hydrogen system. Electrolysers will operate differently depending on their combination with other hydrogen sources and/or flexibility tools. As a result, the scenarios bring original information on the interaction, mostly synergies, between electricity and hydrogen systems.

From a wider perspective, scenarios also provide new insights on the other sources of hydrogen such as prices, type (renewable or low carbon) and geographical perspective. It brings transparency on the level of integration of Europe in its surroundings in line both with national strategies of non-EU countries (e.g., Morocco and Norway) and the EU Hydrogen Strategy (e.g. 40 GW of electrolysis to be installed in surrounding regions).

Vehicle-to-Grid and prosumer modelling

The development of e-mobility, residential batteries and solar panels provides new opportunity for citizens to interact with the overall electricity system.

In the previous edition of the scenario report (TYNDP 2020), such interactions were defined as static inputs to the electricity system modelling. This approach was meaningful to capture smart charging but was not fully taking into account some more integrated strategies such as Vehicle-to-Grid.

In addition, PV and battery capacities did not distinguish infrastructures directly connected to the electricity market and those installed by prosumers, meaning that their development and operation were optimized at European system level. This did not reflect more specific and local drivers such as the willingness of prosumers to reduce their dependence from the grid.

For this edition, passenger cars and prosumers have been explicitly modelled as specific components of the electricity system. As a result, it is possible to capture their evolution according to hybrid signals: the wholesale electricity market price on one hand and specific drivers such as the reduction of connection cost or mobility needs.

Optimization of district heating operation

In previous editions, the air and water heating market was split between a wide range of technologies being installed at end-user facility or as part of a district heating network. However, each technology was modelled as if individually installed. This hindered the ability to take into account the optimization potential offered by district heating in combining different heat sources together with flexibility options (network inertia or dedicated thermal storage).

For this edition, a specific modelling step has been introduced prior to the electricity system modelling.

The aim is to define the capacity and electricity load profiles of heat pumps installed on district heating networks. With the combination of heat technologies partly taken into account, the design and load factor of heat pumps have been optimized compared to their equivalent installed at end-user level.

At this stage the optimization is run independently from the dispatch of the electricity system and focuses on climatic parameters. Future editions will provide the opportunity to investigate the reactiveness of district heating to electricity price in a wider context.