4

Scenario results

4.3 Imports

Imports decrease significantly with renewable capacities and further sector integration.

In both COP 21 scenarios, the combination of the energy efficiency measures combined with further integration of the different energy systems significantly reduce the energy demand.

Furthermore, both Distributed Energy and Global Ambition scenarios see the significant development of indigenous renewable capacities for electricity and gas, reducing the need for imports.

Figure 31: Energy imports for EU 27

System integration fosters clean energy production and contributes to energy independency.

With increasing system integration, the EU energy ­system increasingly relies on electricity and gas renewables to satisfy its energy demand since significant production capacities can be developed in the EU. Therefore, the EU energy demand only marginally relies on coal and oil, and liquids in general, which reduces the need for carbon intensive energy imports.

In 2050, the Global Ambition scenario considers the EU as an actor of the international clean energy market and the global energy transition. This scenario shows similar import levels compared to the EC CPRICE scenario but with a ­significantly higher level of decarbonisation. The Distributed Energy scenario considers an increasing ­energy ­autonomy of the EU and shows significantly ­reduced ­imports compared to all scenarios of the EC Impact ­Assessment with similar levels of decarbonised imports.