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Scenario Results – Imports
5

Scenario results

5.3 Imports

With the development of RES capacities and further sector integration, imports are decreasing significantly.

In both COP 21 scenarios, the combination of the energy efficiency measures combined with further integration of the different energy systems significantly reduces the energy demand.

Furthermore, both Distributed Energy and Global Ambition scenarios see the significant development of indigenous renewable capacities for electricity and gas, reducing the need for imports.

Figure 35: Energy imports for EU 27

System integration fosters clean energy production and contributes to energy independency.

With increasing system integration, the EU energy system increasingly relies on electricity and gas renewables to satisfy its energy demand since significant production capacities can be developed in the EU. Therefore, the EU energy demand only marginally relies on coal and oil, and liquids in general, which reduces the need for carbon intensive energy imports.

In 2050, the Global Ambition scenario considers the EU as an actor of the international clean energy market and the global energy transition. This scenario shows lower import levels compared to the EC CPRICE scenario with a significantly higher level of decarbonisation. The Distributed Energy scenario considers an increasing energy autonomy of the EU and shows significantly reduced imports compared to all scenarios of the EC Impact Assessment with similar levels of decarbonised imports.

Disclaimer

In a rapidly changing energy landscape and impacts due to geopolitical influences, the energy policies of the EU and many Member States are continuously developing.

The invasion of Ukraine by Russia on 24 February 2022 has led to a major overhaul of energy policy objectives in terms of energy security and diversification of supply that the TYNDP 2022 scenarios do not currently reflect.

ENTSO-E and ENTSOG would like to explain that due to these recent events affecting the energy supply in Europe, some assumptions used in this report regarding gas supply may be impacted for the short and longer terms.  

ENTSO-E and ENTSOG are committed to developing TYNDP scenarios that will support the European Union plans for energy infrastructure and to achieve the objectives of the EU Green Deal as well as the Paris Agreement, and to ensure a fair, affordable and secure transition towards a clean and decarbonised energy system. The TYNDP 2022 scenarios were developed over the last two years on this basis, and with extensive stakeholder engagement.

As for every TYNDP, the assessment of the EU’s dependence on the main gas supply sources and impact on the infrastructure will continue in TYNDP 2022 and is planned to be published at the end of the 2022.

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