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Executive Summary

Building on the previous scenario reports, the cooperative work of gas and electricity planning experts across Europe and the public consultation of the draft report published on 7 October 2021, the updated joint TYNDP 2022 Scenario Report is more ambitious, more inclusive, and more transparent than previous editions. It includes two COP21-compliant scenarios and ENTSO-E and ENTSOG have gone to great lengths to capture the impact of the fast-moving and fast-paced energy transition on electricity and gas infrastructure. This report is the common building block of the future gas and electricity TYNDPs and contains a series of important highlights for the future of Europe’s energy system:

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Net-zero can be achieved by 2050 while ensuring the security of ­energy supply

Both Distributed Energy and Global Ambition scenarios reach –55 % of GHG reduction in 2030 and net zero in 2050. These targets are achieved with an ambitious development of energy efficiency and renewable and low carbon technology solutions in EU Member States. This achievement requires a wide range of actions whose impact depends on an appropriate political, societal, and economic framework.
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Energy efficiency is key to achieve the EU long-term Climate and Energy ­objectives

The efficiency first principle is key to minimise the challenges of decarbonising the energy supply and requires among others:

  • Continued improvement of existing technology options, whilst switching to new and emerging technologies where further efficiency gains can be obtained.
  • Active participation of end consumers through smart energy use and behavioural adaptation.
  • Direct electrification is key to achieve the decarbonization objectives when it can ensure an efficient use of renewable energy. Decarbonising all energy carriers is crucial to ensure a competitive, resilient, and reliable energy system.
  • Early development of negative emission options are required to limit further investments post 2050 subject to the carbon budget method.
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Ambitious development of renewable energy across Europe

All decarbonisation and renewable technologies are needed to reach net zero 2050 and European renewable energy will be essential:

  • Long term climatic targets can be achieved through sustained growth and substantial investment in all European renewable energy sources including wind, solar, and biomethane.
  • Fostering renewable energy production at consumer level (e. g., prosumers, energy positive buildings …) will contribute to scaling up and embracing clean energy supply.
  • Transmission infrastructure is needed to connect areas of high renewable energy potential to the high demand centres.
  • Acceptance of energy infrastructure expansion is paramount to achieve climatic targets.
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Sector Integration provides efficient decarbonisation solutions

A fully integrated system can deliver efficient decarbonisation solutions and enable the European production of gas and electricity to be carbon neutral before 2050.

  • Integration of electricity, methane and hydrogen infrastructures provides a wide range of opportunities to solve short term and seasonal flexibility needs in a net-zero energy system.
  • The development of hydrogen and synthetic fuels by electrolysis will foster further development of wind and solar.
  • District heating and urban energy planning can support smarter utility from a broader range and combination of energy sources.
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Integrated energy systems: hydrogen is a game changer for gas and electricity systems

  • Hydrogen can efficiently contribute to the transition of the current gas system into a carbon neutral and more integrated system.
  • Hydrogen can unlock the full potential of renewable electricity resources. It will contribute to a higher European energy autonomy.
  • A European hydrogen market is an opportunity for the EU to take part in a global clean energy market and import decarbonised energy.
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Innovation is key to achieve a sustainable energy future

The scenarios depict several ways in which the European energy system may evolve. They aim to reach climate neutrality; however, it cannot be ignored that there are additional factors and challenges that go beyond what is needed for energy infrastructure planning. Further attention is needed to understand the impact in the shift towards a sustainable economy including recycling and repurposing, enabling stable supply chains, use of land space and scarce resources, training of workforce, financing, and citizen engagement. Innovation needed goes beyond technical knowhow to ensure the energy system is made sustainable in time for future generations.

The updated joint TYNDP 2022 Scenario Report comes with enlarged data sets available through a dedicated data visualisation platform. These scenario data sets can be used by stakeholders to do their own studies on possible energy futures. ENTSOG and ENTSO-E have also provided full transparency on how scenarios are built and how each factor influencing the development of gas and electricity infrastructure is considered.

ENTSOG and ENTSO-E will continue striving to improve their scenario report, engaging as early as possible with stakeholders, increasing transparency and usability. Both associations hope this report will give readers a qualitative insight into the impact of the energy transition on Europe’s future gas and electricity networks.

Disclaimer

In a rapidly changing energy landscape and impacts due to geopolitical influences, the energy policies of the EU and many Member States are continuously developing.

The invasion of Ukraine by Russia on 24 February 2022 has led to a major overhaul of energy policy objectives in terms of energy security and diversification of supply that the TYNDP 2022 scenarios do not currently reflect.

ENTSO-E and ENTSOG would like to explain that due to these recent events affecting the energy supply in Europe, some assumptions used in this report regarding gas supply may be impacted for the short and longer terms.  

ENTSO-E and ENTSOG are committed to developing TYNDP scenarios that will support the European Union plans for energy infrastructure and to achieve the objectives of the EU Green Deal as well as the Paris Agreement, and to ensure a fair, affordable and secure transition towards a clean and decarbonised energy system. The TYNDP 2022 scenarios were developed over the last two years on this basis, and with extensive stakeholder engagement.

As for every TYNDP, the assessment of the EU’s dependence on the main gas supply sources and impact on the infrastructure will continue in TYNDP 2022 and is planned to be published at the end of the 2022.