Foreword

We are happy to present to you the gas and electricity joint Scenario Report, the third report of its kind resulting from the close collaboration of ENTSOG and ENTSO-E to ­develop scenarios for the whole energy system. Scenario work is the first important step to capture the interactions between the gas and electricity systems and is therefore paramount to deliver the best assessment of the infrastructure from an integrated system perspective. The joint work also provides a basis to allow assessment for the European Commission’s Projects of Common Interest (PCI) list for energy, as ENTSOG and ENTSO-E progress to develop their Ten-Year Network Development Plans (TYNDPs).

Jan Ingwersen

Jan Ingwersen
General Director ENTSOG

Sonya Twohig

Sonya Twohig
Secretary-General ENTSO-E

The outcomes of the work presented illustrates the unique position of the gas and electricity TSOs to provide quantitative and qualitative output while also building upon the synergies and interlinkages between the two sectors: in total almost 80 TSOs, covering more than 35 countries, contributed to this collaborative process. The combined expertise, knowhow and modelling capabilities enabled ENTSOG and ENTSO-E to build a set of ambitious and technically robust scenarios which are fully compliant with the Paris Agreement and with the European ambitions for achieving climate neutrality by 2050. The scenarios aim to provide a quantitative basis for infrastructure investment planning and insights into the evolution of integrated energy system perspective, while remaining both technology- and energy-carrier neutral.

Transparent, inclusive and active stakeholder engagement has been a crucial element in the development of this first step of the TYNDP process and will continue to be in future editions. We have worked closely with numerous stakeholders from a wide range of industries and sectors, NGOs, National Regulatory Authorities and Member States, among others, in order to ensure transparency of processes and data, robust assumptions and inputs, and data comparability and availability. Scenario Report builds up on the feedback and recommendations received through multiple stakeholder workshops covering each step of the scenario building process, two extensive public consultations on the scenario assumptions and the scenarios themselves, as well as numerous bilateral exchanges with stakeholders. In addition, the Scenario Report is accompanied by a Scenario Methodology Report offering a detailed description of the underlying assumptions for the scenarios and the modelling process and methodology, and all raw data and individual datasets are published to allow readers/users to scrutinise both individual figures per Member State and combined figures for Europe.

A core element of ENTSO-E and ENTSOG’s scenario ­building process has been the use of supply and demand data collected from both gas and electricity TSOs as well as from official EU and Member State data sources and key industry projections to build robust bottom-up scenarios. This approach is used for the National Trends Scenario, the central policy scenario of this report, ­recognising national and EU climate targets as reflected in the latest ­Member States’ National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs). In view of the 1.5 °C target of the Paris Agreement and the EU Climate Law ambition of minimum 55 % GHG emission ­reductions by 2030 and net zero by 2050, the ENTSOs have also developed the ­­Global Ambition and ­Distributed Energy Scenarios using a top-down approach with a full-energy perspective.

For the first time, the scenarios utilise new sector-coupling methodologies and dedicated modelling tools both to optimise overall system efficiencies and flexibility use as well as to capture better the interactions and new dynamics at the interfaces between various end-use sectors (e. g., vehicle-to-grid and ­prosumer modelling), at various geographical scales (e. g., district heating) and with other carriers (Power-to-Gas and ­Power-to-liquid). It is also the first time that the scenarios have modelled hydrogen and electrolysis at pan-European scale.

As ENTSOG and ENTSO-E look to the future, it is evident that energy system integration, and innovation will be key to meeting European energy consumers’ needs, whilst also achieving EU climate neutrality goals by 2050.

A fully integrated energy system can deliver more ­efficient decarbonisation solutions and enable the European ­production of gas and electricity to become carbon ­neutral already by 2050. An integrated approach connecting gas and electricity networks and countries seamlessly will ­support the uptake of new technologies and foster ­regional and pan-European economies of scale, while ensuring ­reliable electricity and gas supplies to consumer ­throughout the year, including peak demand situations. ­Hydrogen will be a game changer for both gas and ­electricity systems as it will support decarbonisation efforts, interlink the two systems while further unlocking the potentials of renewable electricity sources to ­deliver system flexibility and energy autonomy at European scale. Moreover, the increasing integration of electricity, ­methane and hydrogen infrastructures and the efficient use of electrolysis technologies will also support large-scale renewables’ integration and solutions to support system flexibility needs.

Achieving net-zero emissions requires a wide range of actions from all sectors of society, but energy efficiency is key to achieve the EU climate neutrality objectives. The improvement of existing technology options and the active participation of consumers through smart energy use and behavioural adaptations supports the efficient use of renewable and low-carbon technology solutions for cross-sectorial decarbonisation.

Last but not least, the Scenarios show that to achieve net-zero emissions, innovation in new and existing ­technologies is required to reduce the costs of energy from renewable energy sources, increase the efficiency of user appliances, facilitate demand side response and consumer participation, support renewable and decarbonised gases, develop technologies that will support negative emissions, and reap the benefits of a circular economy, while ensuring long-term sustainability for future generations.

The development of this comprehensive, reliable and contrasted set of possible energy futures, as presented in the Scenario Report, will allow the TYNDPs to perform a sound and comprehensive assessment of European energy infrastructure requirements from a whole energy system perspective and will provide decision makers with better information, as they seek to make informed choices that will benefit all European consumers.

We look forward to working with you again as we follow the next important steps in the TYNDP process.

Download

TYNDP 2022 Draft Scenario Report

  1. Executive summary
  2. Purpose of the scenario report
  3. Scenario descriptions and storylines
  4. Scenario results
  5. The cost of electricity
  6. Benchmarking
  7. Stakeholder engagement and how it shaped the scenarios
  8. Improvements in the TYNDP 2022 scenarios
  9. Next steps
  10. Glossary
Download Draft Scenario Report
1

Executive Summary

Building on the previous scenario reports and cooperative work of gas and electricity planning experts across Europe, the draft joint TYNDP 2022 scenario report is more ambitious, more inclusive and more transparent than previous editions. It includes two COP 21-compliant scenarios and ENTSO-E and ENTSOG have gone to great lengths to capture the impact of the fast-moving and fast-paced energy transition on electricity and gas infrastructure. The draft joint TYNDP 2022 scenario report is the building block of the future gas and electricity TYNDPs and contains a series of important highlights for the future of Europe’s energy system:

1

Net-zero can be achieved by 2050 while ensuring the security of ­energy supply

Both Distributed Energy and Global Ambition scenarios reach –55 % of GHG reduction in 2030 and net-zero in 2050. These targets are achieved with an/the ambitious development of energy efficiency and renewable and low carbon technology solutions in EU Member States. This achievement requires a wide range of actions whose impact depends on an appropriate political, societal, and economic framework.
2

Energy efficiency is key to achieve the EU long-term Climate and Energy ­objectives

The efficiency first principle is key to minimise the challenges of decarbonising the energy supply and requires among others:

  • Continued improvement of existing technology options, whilst switching to new and emerging technologies where further efficiency gains can be obtained.
  • Active participation of end consumers through smart energy use and behavioural adaptation.
  • Direct electrification is key to achieve the decarbonisation objectives when it can ensure an efficient use of renewable energy. Decarbonising all energy carriers is crucial to ensure a competitive, resilient, and reliable energy system.
  • There is a need to rapidly invest in negative emission.
3

Ambitious development of renewable energy across Europe

All decarbonisation and renewable technologies are needed to reach net-zero 2050 and European renewable energy will be essential:

  • Long term climatic targets can be achieved through sustained growth and substantial investment in all European renewable energy sources including wind, solar, and biomethane.
  • Fostering renewable energy production at consumer level (e. g., prosumers, energy positive buildings …) will contribute to scaling up and embracing clean energy supply.
  • Transmission infrastructure is needed to connect areas of high renewable energy potential to the high demand centres.
  • Acceptance of energy infrastructure expansion is paramount to achieve climatic targets.
4

Sector Integration provides efficient decarbonisation solutions

A fully integrated system can deliver efficient decarbonisation solutions and enable the European production of gas and electricity to be carbon neutral by 2040.

  • Integration of electricity, methane and hydrogen infrastructures provides a wide range of opportunities to solve short term and seasonal flexibility needs in a net-zero energy system.
  • The development of hydrogen and synthetic fuels by electrolysis will foster further development of wind and solar.
  • District heating and urban energy planning can support smarter utility from a broader range and combination of energy sources.
5

Integrated energy systems: hydrogen is a game changer for gas and electricity systems

  • Hydrogen can efficiently contribute to the transition of the current gas system into a carbon neutral and more integrated system.
  • Hydrogen can unlock the full potential of renewable electricity resources. It will contribute to reinforcing the security of supply in Europe.
  • While reducing import dependence, a European hydrogen market is an opportunity for the EU to take part to a global clean energy market and import decarbonised energy.
6

Innovation is key to achieve a sustainable energy future

The scenarios depict several ways in which the European energy system may evolve. They aim to reach climate neutrality; however, it cannot be ignored that there are additional factors and challenges that go beyond what is needed to understand for energy infrastructure planning. Further attention is needed to understand the impact in the shift towards a sustainable economy including recycling and repurposing, enabling stable supply chains, use of land space and scarce resources, training of workforce, financing, and citizen engagement. Innovation goes beyond technical knowhow to ensure the energy system is made sustainable in time for future generations.

The draft joint TYNDP 2022 scenario report comes with enlarged data sets available through a dedicated data visualisation platform. These scenario data sets can be used by stakeholders to do their own studies on possible energy futures. ENTSOG and ENTSO-E have also provided full transparency on how scenarios are built and how each factor influencing the development of gas and electricity infrastructure is considered.

ENTSOG and ENTSO-E will continue striving to improve their scenario report, engaging as early as possible with stakeholders, increasing transparency and usability. Both associations hope this report will give readers a qualitative insight into the impact of the energy transition on Europe’s future gas and electricity networks.