Scenarios will cover different time horizons
The scenario building process for the TYNDP 2022 builds on the work of previous editions. The TYNDP process has shown that scenarios have to combine different expectations along their time horizon: supporting infrastructure project assessment, analyzing investment needs or illustrating the shape of prospective energy systems. In parallel there is an expectation that the short term time horizon reflects existing trends and legislation, while long-term scenarios should be compliant with the EU policy goals, including the European Green Deal and the Paris Agreement endorsed by the EU and all Member States1.
Figure 2 illustrates how ENTSO-E and ENTSOG plan to cover the different time horizons in their scenarios for TYNDP 2022. This approach is quite similar to the TYNDP 2020 scenarios.
Figure 2: TYNDP Scenario horizon and framework
For both 2022 and 2025 a “Best Estimate” scenario will be developed. For the quantification of this time horizon ENTSOG and ENTSO-E will use bottom-up data from the TSOs. These figures reflect current national and European regulations as stated end of 2020. Additionally, the replacement of coal by gas based power generation will be simulated as a sensitivity for 2025.
The longer term goals, starting from 2030, will be covered by three different scenarios, reflecting increasing uncertainties towards 2050.
- National Trends will be the scenario in line with national energy and climate policies2 (NECPs , national long-term strategies3, hydrogen strategies … ) derived from the European targets. The electricity and gas datasets for this scenario will be based on figures collected from the TSOs translating the latest policy- and market-driven developments as discussed at national level. The quantification of National Trends will focus on electricity and gas up to (at least) 2040. ENTSOG and ENTSO-E invite the reader to refer to the national documents to have an energy-wide perspective;
- In addition to the National Trends scenario, which is aligned with national policies, ENTSOG and ENTSO-E will develop two top-down scenarios. These will be built as full energy scenarios (all sectors, all energy carriers) in order to quantify compliance with EU policies and climate ambitions. Both scenarios aim at reaching the 1.5 °C target of the Paris Agreement following the carbon budget approach4. They are developed on a country-level until 2040 and on an EU27-level until 2050.
Scope of this final storyline report
The Best Estimate and National Trends scenarios have a strong country-specific narrative that provides insight into the evolving policies and market developments for each area. This is also in line with the legal requirements that the dataset shall reflect European Union and Member State national law in force at the date of analysis (Regulation (EU) 347/2013, Annex V, point 2) and furthermore, conforms with provisions stated in (EC) No 714/2009 and (EC) NO 715/2009, Article 8 point 10.
The assumptions used in the Best Estimate and National Trends scenarios are already being discussed on a national level. That is why ENTSOG and ENTSO-E do not have to develop or consult specific scenario storylines for Best Estimate and National Trends themselves.
Instead, the ENTSOG and ENTSO-E will provide details on the data sources per country as part of the draft scenario report due to be published mid-2021.
The two top down scenarios on the other hand require specific storylines defined on a European level. The next chapters lay out the top down storylines ENTSOG and ENTSO-E will use in further scenario development for TYNDP 2022. The feedback received is factored in the Final TYNDP 2022 storylines captured in this report.