5

Quantification of key parameter ranges

The TYNDP 2020 Scenario building process, first ­developed qualitative storylines followed by a second step that created quantitative scenarios. TYNDP 2020 was the first year that ENTSOG and ENSTO-E created a whole energy system tool, called the Ambition Tool and developed new methodologies for collecting energy and technology trajectory information. The availability of new tools and methodologies means that for TYNDP2022 we can provide meaningful quantification of key parameters at storyline level.

As a result, the combination of parameters defining each storyline (see Storyline Matrix in annex) is now ­complemented with quantitative ranges or priority orders for key parameters. The exact level of development of each technology will finally depend on the supply-demand balance of each scenario and therefore cannot be defined ex-ante at storyline level. A high and low trajectory have therefore been defined for key parameters.

They play a benchmark role as upper and lower boundaries rather than a targeted level to be reached. Top down scenarios are open to a wider range of technology inputs, based on economic and storyline assumptions. It is expected that the resulting scenarios will have a diverse range of ­technologies that enable a net-zero pathway, rather than leaning on one particular technology or energy carrier.

For reference, the graphs in this chapter highlight the ranges of key parameters as published in the Draft Storyline report in November 2020 and the updated ranges based on consultation feedback and TSO consideration of country specifics. For comparison purpose, the charts also include the level of those parameters as resulting from the Final TYNDP 2020 Scenario Report published in June 2020. The updated ranges will serve as the basis for the building of the Distributed Energy and Global Ambition scenarios. For consistency, all graphs have been updated to consider the EU27 perimeter.

5.1 Demand

Energy demand is defined by many factors such as the range of energy services to be provided, the behaviour of energy consumers and the available technology choices. It translates for each energy carrier and application into an energy demand level and a temporal profile across the year.

Some technologies will have a strong influence on energy demand as they result in usage transfer (e. g. e-mobility, from oil to electricity), energy savings (e. g. heat pumps, Coefficient of Performance gains) or the need for new energy carriers (e. g. hydrogen).

They also may become an increasing source of flexibility for the energy system (e. g. demand-side management, smart charging, hybrid heat-pump, district heating, electrolysis…).

In order to bring visibility to the storyline and scenario design, some quantitative ranges have been defined for certain heating and mobility technologies.

Overall electrification rate

By 2050 the electrification shares in residential and tertiary will surpass 50 %. In industry it will be at least 40 %. For mobility (including aviation and shipping) will see a direct electrification rate of at least 25 %. In the agriculture sector the direct electrification will reach around 20 %.

A higher electrification is considered in every sector being higher in Distributed Energy scenario according to the storylines. In all cases values may change a bit after the modelling. Electrification rates will differ from one country to another.

Number and type of individual heat pumps

Heat pumps cover a wide range of technologies depending on the ambient heat source, the heating fluid and the energy source used to operate the heat pump. As a result, each technology incorporates a specific electricity or gas demand profile. For the purpose of quantifying the storylines, specific ranges are defined for:

  • Electric heat pumps (covering Air/Air, Air/Water and Water or ground/Water)
  • Hybrid heat pumps (combination of a size-optimized Air/Water electric heat pump and a gas boiler)

Residential and tertiary sectors will see similar developments of heat pumps while the evolution may differ for district heating.

When defining the electricity demand profiles as inputs for the scenario modelling, a specific profile will be used for each heat pump category. For the hybrid heat pumps the switch from purely electricity mode to hybrid (gas) mode will occur at an outside temperature of 3 – 5 °C.

Scenario DE

In this scenario, the installation of individual all-electric heat pumps is predominant due to the strong efficiency gain required to reach European energy autonomy. This technology participates to the high electrification of demand in parallel with the maximisation of electricity generation through solar and wind.

Scenario GA

In this scenario, the availability of methane and hydrogen imports supports the use of gas in the building sector. Hybrid heat pumps are a meaningful alternative to all-electric heat pumps in certain countries. They combine the energy saving of the electric heat pumps on a wide temperature range while avoiding the necessity of deep renovation or oversizing electricity infrastructure. They benefit from the flexibility of the gas system to cover extremely cold temperature or stress situation.

Proposed ranges

The range for all-electric heat pumps is based on external studies consistent with carbon neutrality (EC LTS 1.5 Life/Tech scenarios1 and Eurelectric 95 % Scenario2). The range for hybrid heat pumps is based on the conversion of ­existing gas boilers taking into account the benefit of the technology under cold and humid climate where all-electric heat pumps may create some challenge for the electricity system at very cold temperature. A regional approach will be developed in order to take into consideration such country specifics such as climate and the spread of gas distribution networks. As a result the heat pump share at country level may be lower or higher than the range defined below at European level.

Concerning the electric heat pumps in 2050:

  • Maximum: 54 % market share slightly above the average of heat pumps in residential (44 %) and tertiary (53 %) heating according to the Eurelectric 95 % Scenario plus a 10 % headroom.
  • Minimum: 43 % market share as resulting from a more ambitious vision from stakeholders and TSOs on the role of this technology compared to the Draft Storyline report.

Concerning the hybrid heat pumps in 2050:

  • Maximum: 18 % market share resulting from a conversion assumption of 40 % of existing gas boilers3 to hybrid heat pumps.
  • Minimum: 9 % market share resulting from a conversion assumption of 25 % of existing gas boilers to hybrid heat pumps.
Figure 5 final

Figure 5: Market share of (hybrid) heat pumps in the built ­environment

In the graph we included an updated range to be used in the TYNDP 2022 scenarios. Concerning electric heat pumps, we consider a split between air source and ground source of around 80 %/20 % respectively (for all target years, both for GA and DE).

Share of district heating

District heating covers a wide range of situation in terms of demand (residential, tertiary or industrial space heating and cooling) and energy sources (excess heat, ambient heat, solar, biomass…). These differences are strongly linked to geography (urban, sub-urban or countryside areas).

For the purpose of quantifying the storylines a range is provided for the overall market share of district heating in low temperature heating demand.

The fuel mix for district heating will be detailed at a later stage of the scenario building process. It will reflect the ongoing cooperation between the district heating sector in particular through Euroheat & Power, ENTSO-E and ENTSOG. The scenarios are enhanced by accounting for different district heating systems and the role flexibility of these systems can offer within the overall energy system.

Scenario DE

Local initiatives and circularity are key drivers of the scenario. District heating and cooling embodies both trends. They are part of spatial planning by local authorities and can combine a wide range of local energy sources (geothermal, solar or biomass). They offer a link to consumers for recovered heat from a wide range of sectors (industry, waste, data centres…).

They enable energy saving through the use of large-scale efficient heat pumps. These benefits are combined with the ability to back-up heat pumps with other heat sources and thermal storage. The resulting flexibility is of particular importance in a scenario with very low dispatchable power generation.

Scenario GA

In this scenario, gas and electricity distribution networks connected to renewable production and transmission systems continue to be the main solution for building heating and cooling. As a consequence the market share of district heating will similar to the present situation.

Proposed range in 2050

The EC LTS and Policy4 scenarios and the Heat Roadmap Europe5 study were taken as references for district heating market shares:

  • Maximum: 32 % as resulting from the cross-sectorial work with the district heating sector.
  • Minimum: 15 % in line with the EC LTS 1.5 Tech/Life scenarios not anticipating a significant evolution from the technology.
Figure 06 final

Figure 6: Market share of district heating in the built ­environment

Share of hydrogen fuel cells for heating

For hydrogen fuel cells there is no pre-defined range in the storyline. The market share of this technology is rather limited in both (around 1 % in 2050). As such, there isn’t a strong differentiation between Global Ambition and Distributed Energy regarding the penetration of this technology in the residential & commercial sector, resulting in market shares which are rather low.

Shares for passenger EV and FCEV

EVs are emblematic of the energy transition and strong growth in sales is evident across Europe. From a demand perspective their development is driven by air pollution concerns, energy efficiency and CO2 emission reduction. Passenger vehicles currently account for the highest share in the total transport fleet. To reach the climatic targets, the decarbonisation of the passenger sector will be driven mainly by a fast uptake of Electrical Vehicles (EVs).

Fuel Cell Electrical Vehicles (FCEVs) will remain limited compared to EVs in the passenger cars segment. However, for other transport categories, such as heavy good this technology presents itself as a better alternative.

Scenario DE

The use of electric motors delivers high efficiency gains, compared to ICE, helping Europe to reach energy autonomy, complimented by the strong development of solar and power. Secondly EVs offer flexibility to the electricity system through smart charging, which becomes increasingly important in a scenario where dispatchable power generation is in rapid decline.

The strong development of common transport modes, such as, train in this scenario will mitigate the challenge of autonomy for long distance travel.

Scenario GA

In this scenario, there is a wider range of clean mobility technologies with fuel cells as a meaningful option for long distance travel, high usage rate and power requirement. EVs offer the most efficient solution for short to medium distance mobility. In parallel the availability of hydrogen supply and transport infrastructure leads to technology ­development of fuel cell mobility driven by specific segments where driving range, engine power or use intensity matters. Personal mobility benefits from these development and private FCEVs take some market shares especially for long distance travel.

Proposed ranges in 2050

Based on third party studies, ranges for both technologies were defined:

  • Maximum:
    • EV: 89 % market share in line with the EC REG Policy scenario having the highest market share for battery and plug-in hybrid passenger cars
    • FCEV: 16 % market share in line with the EC REG Policy scenario having the highest market share for fuel cell passenger cars
  • Minimum:
    • EV: 74 % market share in line with the EC CPRICE scenario having the lowest market share for battery and plug-in hybrid passenger cars
    • FCEV: 6 % just above the EC Baseline scenario

From TYNDP 2020, it is worth noting that EV fleet ­trajectory used a linear progression resulting in too high a market share for EVs in 2030 when considering supply chain effects and replacement rates. For this edition a lower range has been defined for 2030 consistent with existing projection compared the most optimistic sales figures up to 2030 (Eurelectric 95 % Scenario).

Figure 07 - final

Figure 7: Market share of EVs in passenger car fleet

Figure 08 - final

Figure 8: Market share of FCEVs in passenger car fleet

Shares for heavy good vehicles EV and FCEV

For heavy goods there are no rages proposed in the draft storyline report. Following stakeholder feedback we have included some additional information for this mobility segment. For heavy goods transport the FCEVs present as a better alternative than EVs especially in Global Ambition scenario. The ranges for each technology are shown in the following graphs.

Distributed Energy will be in the high range for EVs and in the lower range for FCEVs. The opposite will be the case for Global Ambition.

Figure 09 - final

Figure 9: Market share of EVs in heavy goods vehicles

Figure 10 - final

Figure 10: Market share of FCEVs in heavy goods vehicles

Energy Intensity

During the storylines consultation several stakeholders suggested that the draft storylines showed too much variation in terms of energy intensity (efficiency, circularity, etc.). Following this feedback, ENTSOG and ENTSO-E have adapted the storyline description so that they only show a limited difference for this scenario driver. Distributed Energy going only a little bit further that Global Ambition.

In the EC Impact Assessment, we observe a difference in final demand of approximately 6 % between the scenarios. We aim to remain close to this assumption.

5.2 Supply

The range and the extent of available energy sources in Europe are drivers that will shape the evolution of the energy system. The proposed storylines intend to cover contrasted pathways resorting to different technologies, renewable sources and imports.

Wind onshore, wind offshore and solar PV

Wind (onshore and offshore) and solar PV technologies are key components of the future decarbonized energy mix and therefore play a pivotal role in the development of the scenario storylines.

From a modelling perspective, the deployment of these technologies will result from an investment loop using the below updated ranges as boundary conditions and annualized cost assumptions. The results will strongly depend on electricity demand level (including electricity for P2X). Apart from these cost assumptions, the geographical investment decisions are further driven by technology and country specific Climate Data. For instance, where offshore wind is not an option due to a lack of coast line or policy measure, the model will naturally not invest in this option. This boundary is reflected in either conditions given by TSOs or the climate data.

Scenario DE

Targeting European energy autonomy based on renewable energy sources requires maximizing wind and solar development. Increasingly triggered by local initiatives solar PV and onshore wind will see the highest development compared to their potential. As a result RES development will be close to the upper range and potentially higher than the level reached in the TYNDP 2020 DE scenario, mainly due to lower imports and nuclear capacity. The resulting variability of the energy mix will require significant flexibility at network and demand level.

Scenario GA

Widening the supply range to low carbon electricity generation and energy imports will provide some room to optimize renewable development at a European scale seeking both cost efficiency and public acceptance. As a result, offshore wind and large scale solar farms will be respectively predominant in the north (e. g. North Sea Energy Hubs) and in the south of Europe. At the same time the capacity level of those technologies could be lower in absolute terms than in Distributed Energy as relatively higher energy imports results in lower deployment of wind, solar and electrolysis capacity to produce synthetic fuels in Europe.

Proposed ranges in 2050

The following graphs cover both technical potential of solar and wind as well as the installed capacities as stated in the main third party scenarios (EC, IRENA, IEA, Eurelectric and e-Highway) approaching carbon neutrality. Onshore and offshore wind ranges are defined as separate categories to improve visibility on storylines.

Maximum technical potential

  • Solar: 4,600 GW6 as resulting from a conservative scaling of the Solar Power Europe scenario to EU27
  • Wind: 8,362 GW from JRC Technical Report: Wind potentials for EU and neighbouring countries

Highest level in external studies for 2050

  • Solar: 2,000 GW (43 % of technical potential) from ­Energy Watch Group7 and PAC scenarios)
  • Onshore wind: 1,095 GW as 10 % above the EC CPRICE scenario in order to give flexibility to the investment loop defining the electricity ­generation capacity
  • Offshore wind: 340 GW based on Wind Europe ­“Our energy our future” scenario scaled down to EU27

Lowest level in external studies for 2050

For each technology, the limit derives from the study achieving carbon neutrality in 2050 with a low level of the technology and applying an additional 10 % reduction in order to give flexibility to the investment loop defining the electricity generation capacity:

  • Solar: 930 GW as 10 % below the EC REG scenario
  • Onshore wind: 840 GW as 10 % below the EC REG ­scenario
  • Offshore wind: 270 GW as 10 % below the EC Strategy on offshore renewable energy

The following figure displays the ranges for installed capacities of solar PV and wind (onshore and offshore) from third party studies and the TYNDP2020 scenarios GA and DE. The ranges presented are from various external scenario studies and are substantially lower than the technical potentials for solar and wind, which finally define the boundaries for the modelling process.

Highest levels for 2030 are set on the EC ALLBNK scenario (380 GW for solar, 374 GW for onshore wind and 79 GW for offshore wind) when lowest levels for 2030 are set based on historical trends (300 GW for solar, 280 GW for onshore wind and 55 GW for offshore wind).

Figure 11 displays the ranges for installed capacities of solar PV and wind (onshore and offshore) from third party studies and the TYNDP2020 scenarios GA and DE. The ranges presented are from various external scenario studies and are substantially lower than the technical potentials for solar and wind, which finally define the boundaries for the modelling process. The range for 2030 has been narrowed to reflect stakeholder feedback the on a 2030 time horizon the uncertainty was overestimated in the initial ranges.

Figure 12 provides a breakdown of wind trajectory in onshore and offshore technologies.

6 Due to this figure being far outside the range of the other sources we encountered, it was not considered in the range for our storylines.

7 As mentioned in the JRC PV Status report 2019

Figure 11 - final

Figure 11: Installed capacities for solar PV and wind generation for EU27 (comparison between initial range from the Draft Storyline Report and the updated range considering consultation feedback)

Figure 12 - final

Figure 12: Trajectories of onshore and offshore wind ­technologies for EU27

Nuclear

Nuclear energy is a low-carbon energy source having the ability to contribute towards meeting EU CO2 emissions targets. Nuclear development is decided by governmental policies at a nation level. It ranges from countries having decided an accelerated phase out of existing units, to countries planning the construction of new reactors. In any case the level of nuclear capacity is likely to influence the European electricity system, as such the top-down scenarios should capture different evolutions according to their storylines.

Scenario DE

The objective of a fully renewable energy mix results in the absence of construction of new reactors and the phase out of existing ones according to national policies.

Scenario GA

Some European countries take the decision to extend the life of existing units and to build new reactors. The objective is to complement RES development with some low-carbon production with some dispatch capability.

Proposed ranges in 2050

Trajectories are based on TSOs data complemented with assumptions on project development and unit lifetime:

  • Maximum: 99 GW with a 55-year lifetime assumption for existing, under construction and plan units when not provided by TSOs. This trajectory shows a capacity decrease down to 2030 then a slow increase up to present level in 2050.
  • Minimum: 19 GW with a 45-year lifetime assumptions for existing units and those under construction.

At quantification stage of the top-down scenarios, the nuclear capacity of each country will be defined as an input of the modelling taking into account the aforementioned trajectories, public consultation results and the latest national policy developments.

Figure 13 - final

Figure 13: Trajectories for nuclear generation capacity for EU27

Energy Imports

Nowadays Europe imports a wide range of energy carriers complementing indigenous production. With higher efficiency and electrification compared to present situation, the need of imports will decrease in the long-term. At the same time some countries over the world consider the possibility to export low carbon and renewable energy.

While top-down scenarios will in the end capture the full energy mix, the storylines focus primarily on methane and hydrogen (including derived forms such as ammonia).

Scenario DE

The reduction in gas demand resulting from deep electrification together with the significant uptake of local renewable gas production, imports experiment a high decrease in comparison to today’s level. Gas imports are assumed to be lower than 35 % of present level which was the TYNDP 2020 DE threshold already substantially lower than the EC LTS 1.5 Tech/Life scenarios.

Scenario GA

With a more diverse supply mix, gas demand is higher than in DE scenario. With lower uptake of electrolysis within Europe the path to achieve large scale decarbonisation entails a more import-oriented vision. In any case total energy imports stay within the upper range set by EC LTS 1.5 Tech scenario representing a 70 % decrease compared to present level.

Proposed ranges in 2050

Figure 14 illustrates the EU-27 imports of oil, gas and biofuels for 2050 in the EC scenarios and TYNDP 2020 DE and GA scenarios. At first glance, the total imports in the new EC Policy scenarios (REG, MIX, CPRICE and ALLBNK) are within a narrow range of 1,850 – 2,000 TWh. The import source in these scenarios does not vary significantly either. Due to higher energy autonomy, the DE 2020 scenario showed the lowest imports compared to EC and GA 2020 scenarios. Furthermore, the type of imported energy carrier differs, with higher oil and lower renewable gas imports in the EC scenarios. These differences in the imported energy carriers derived from the storyline assumptions. For the 2022 scenarios, we plan to use the TYNDP 2020 scenarios import shares as an upper limit.

Figure 14 - final

Figure 14: Import of oil, gas and biofuels in 2050

Hydrogen supply

Hydrogen is increasingly becoming part of the national energy and climate strategies of countries across the world7. The European Commission has launched an ambitious strategy on hydrogen. This energy carrier enlarges the range of solutions to decarbonize some difficult to electrify sectors. At this stage it is hard to provide a range for the overall hydrogen demand as it an emerging energy carrier which development depends on a wide range of parameters still to be defined.

7 Hydrogen is mentioned in most of the Member States NECPs and is subject to dedicated strategies by at least France, Germany, the Netherlands and Portugal. Beyond EU a wide range of countries have published national hydrogen strategies such as Norway, Japan, South Korea, China, Australia and California

Scenario DE

In this scenario, hydrogen is mainly produced by electrolysis with electricity produced by European wind and solar capacity. It can be complemented in a limited amount by steam methane reforming of biomethane as an interim solution or biomass pyrolysis. In any cases the European renewable energy potential limits the volume of hydrogen that can be produced. As a result, the available volume will be channelled towards the sectors the most challenging to electrify.

Beyond its market share in final energy, hydrogen can play an important role as a source of flexibility since it is a storable energy in the form liquid and gaseous fuels.

Scenario GA

In this scenario, hydrogen comes from a wider range of renewable and low-carbon sources being European as well as imports. As a result, it will be used in a wider range of sectors better mitigating the challenge of deep electrification.

5.3 Flexibility options

Beyond dispatchable power generation and hydro pumped storage, there are many options to support the energy system flexibility needed to deliver the energy transition. Such options include the use of sector coupling (batteries, P2X) and demand side response. These flexibility options can further be ­subcategorised:

Batteries used for short term energy storage (e. g. daily balancing):

  • behind the meter batteries (mostly residential) driven by mixed signals (energy market and local drivers);
  • utility-scale batteries driven by the energy market;
  • utility-scale batteries for system services provision;

Demand-side response:

  • the use of flexibility from electric vehicles smart charging (including FCEVs);
  • the use of hybrid heat pump (cf. § 5.1);
  • in the tertiary sector (e. g. supermarket switching its fridges off for a short amount of time);
  • in the industrial sector (e. g. back-up energy or production adaptation).

Electrolysers

which can adapt hydrogen production to electricity market signals provided that there is downstream flexibility (e. g. ability of an industrial consumer to switch off hydrogen demand or to store it locally or a hydrogen network connecting various sources and storages). Depending on the situation electrolysis can offer flexibility option for all timeframes up to and including seasonal energy balancing.

Flexibility is slightly different to other key parameters in that the development of each flexibility technology is dependent from a wide range of other parameters still to be quantified. In the end it is an output of the electricity market models used to help quantify each of the scenarios. For this reason the present document will focus on the modelling approach of each technology and the priority order consistent with each storylines.

5.4 More information to be provided in draft scenario report

The purpose of the quantitative ranges in the earlier chapters is to support stakeholder understanding what characterises the storylines and how they differ from one another. During the consultation of the draft storyline report we received a lot of requests for additional information and more figures. ENTSOG and ENTSO-E fully understand the added value of providing more data. We should point out however that establishing storylines is only the first step in the scenario building process. We have to acknowledge that the availability of quantitative data is still rather limited. At storyline level we only set the input parameters that are needed for our modelling to be performed. The number of heat pumps and electric vehicles are examples of such input assumptions. The consequences of such input assumptions on energy demand and supply and associated emissions are not yet know at storyline level. These can only be provided after we have completed the energy market modelling.

We intent to provide the full energy picture of the TYNDP 2022 scenario storylines in the draft scenario report to be released in Summer this year. This draft scenario report will be accompanied with a full dataset which will be made available to stakeholders. This dataset will also include figures which are not yet available at storyline level, like for example:

  • Final demand for electricity, gas, liquids and solids
  • Installed capacity and generation of all electricity generators (solar, wind, biomass, gas, coal, etc)
  • Gas supply, including conventional production, renewable gas and import
  • Peak demand figures for both gas and electricity
  • Carbon emissions.