5

Quantification of key parameter ranges

The TYNDP 2020 Scenario building process, first developed qualitative storylines followed by a second step that created quantitative scenarios. TYNDP 2020 was the first year that ENTSOG and ENSTO-E created a whole energy system tool, called the Ambition Tool and developed new methodologies for collecting energy and technology trajectory information. The availability of new tools and methodologies means that for TYNDP2022 we can provide meaningful quantification of key parameters at storyline level.

As a result, the combination of parameters defining each storyline (see Storyline Matrix in annex) is now complemented with quantitative ranges or priority orders for key parameters. The exact level of development of each technology will finally depend on the supply-demand balance of each scenario and therefore cannot be defined ex-ante at storyline level. A high and low trajectory have therefore been defined for key parameters.

They play a benchmark role as upper and lower boundaries rather than a targeted level to be reached. Top down scenarios are open to a wider range of technology inputs, based on economic and storyline assumptions. It is expected that the resulting scenarios will have a diverse range of technologies that enable a net-zero pathway, rather than leaning on one particular technology or energy carrier.

For reference, the graphs in this chapter highlight the parameter levels used in the Final TYNDP 2020 Scenario Report, published in June 2020. The charts illustrate ENTSOG and ENTSO-E’s intention to further enhance the differentiation of the scenarios developed for TYNDP 2022.

5.1 Demand

Energy demand is defined by many factors such as the range of energy services to be provided, the behaviour of energy consumers and the available technology choices. It translates for each energy carrier and application into an energy demand level and a temporal profile across the year.

Some technologies will have a strong influence on energy demand as they result in usage transfer (e.g. e-mobility, from oil to electricity), energy savings (e.g. heat pumps, Coefficient of Performance gains) or the need for new energy carriers (e.g. hydrogen).

They also may become an increasing source of flexibility for the energy system (e.g. demand-side management, smart charging, hybrid heat-pump, district heating, electrolysis…).

In order to bring visibility to the storyline and scenario design, some quantitative ranges have been defined for certain heating and mobility technologies.

Number and type of individual heat pumps

Heat pumps cover a wide range of technologies depending on the ambient heat source, the heating fluid and the energy source used to operate the heat pump. As a result, each technology incorporates a specific electricity or gas demand profile. For the purpose of quantifying the storylines, specific ranges are defined for:

  • Electric heat pumps (covering Air/Air, Air/Water and Water or ground/Water)
  • Hybrid heat pumps (combination of a size-optimized Air/Water electric heat pump and a gas boiler)

Residential and tertiary sectors will see similar developments of heat pumps while the evolution may differ for district heating.

When defining the electricity demand profiles as inputs for the scenario modelling, a specific profile will be used for each heat pump category. For the hybrid heat pumps the switch from purely electricity mode to hybrid (gas) mode will occur at an outside temperature of 3 – 5 °C.

Scenario DE

In this scenario, the installation of individual all-electric heat pumps is predominant due to the strong efficiency gain required to reach European energy autonomy. This technology participates to the high electrification of demand in parallel with the maximisation of electricity generation through solar and wind.

Scenario GA

In this scenario, the availability of methane and hydrogen imports supports the use of gas in the building sector. Hybrid heat pumps are a meaningful alternative to all-electric heat pumps in certain countries. They combine the energy saving of the electric heat pumps on a wide temperature range while avoiding the necessity of deep renovation or oversizing electricity infrastructure. They benefit from the flexibility of the gas system to cover extremely cold temperature or stress situation.

Proposed ranges

The range for all-electric heat pumps is based on external studies consistent with carbon neutrality (EC LTS 1.5 Life/Tech scenarios1 and Eurelectric 95% Scenario2). The range for hybrid heat pumps is based on the conversion of existing gas boilers taking into account the benefit of the technology under cold and humid climate where all-electric heat pumps may create some challenge for the electricity system at very cold temperature. A regional approach will be developed in order to take into consideration such country specifics such as climate and the spread of gas distribution networks. As a result the heat pump share at country level may be lower or higher than the range defined below at European level.

Concerning the Electric Heat Pumps in 2050:

  • Maximum: 57% market share as the average of heat pumps in residential (44%) and tertiary (53%) heating according to the Eurelectric 95% Scenario plus a 10% headroom.
  • Minimum: 32% market share as the share of electricity in space heating in buildings from EC LTS 1.5 Life scenario.

Concerning the Hybrid Heat Pumps in 2050:

  • Maximum: 25% market share resulting from a conversion assumption of 60% of existing gas boilers3 to hybrid heat pumps
  • Minimum: 10% market share resulting from a conversion assumption of 25% of existing gas boilers to hybrid heat pumps
Figure 05

Figure 5: Market share of (hybrid) heat pumps in the built environment

Share of district heating

District heating covers a wide range of situation in terms of demand (residential, tertiary or industrial space heating and cooling) and energy sources (excess heat, ambient heat, solar, biomass…). These differences are strongly linked to geography (urban, sub-urban or countryside areas).

For the purpose of quantifying the storylines a range is provided for the overall market share of district heating in low temperature heating demand.

The fuel mix for district heating will be detailed at a later stage of the scenario building process. It will reflect the ongoing cooperation between the district heating sector in particular through Euroheat & Power, ENTSO-E and ENTSOG. The scenarios are enhanced by accounting for different district heating systems and the role flexibility of these systems can offer within the overall energy system.

Scenario DE

Local initiatives and circularity are key drivers of the scenario. District heating and cooling embodies both trends. They are part of spatial planning by local authorities and can combine a wide range of local energy sources (geothermal, solar or biomass). They offer a link to consumers for recovered heat from a wide range of sectors (industry, waste, data centres…).

They enable energy saving through the use of large-scale efficient heat pumps. These benefits are combined with the ability to back-up heat pumps with other heat sources and thermal storage. The resulting flexibility is of particular importance in a scenario with very low dispatchable power generation.

Scenario GA

In this scenario, gas and electricity distribution networks connected to renewable production and transmission systems continue to be the main solution for building heating and cooling. As a consequence the market share of district heating will similar to the present situation.

Proposed range in 2050

The EC LTS and Policy4 scenarios and the Heat Roadmap Europe5 study were taken as references for district heating market shares:

  • Maximum: 32% as resulting from the cross-sectorial work with the district heating sector
  • Minimum: 15% in line with the EC LTS 1.5 Tech/Life scenarios not anticipating a significant evolution from the technology.
Figure 06

Figure 6: Market share of district heating in the built environment

Number of passenger EV and FCEV

EVs are emblematic of the energy transition and strong growth in sales is evident across Europe. From a demand perspective their development is driven by air pollution concerns, energy efficiency and CO2 emission reduction. Passenger vehicles currently account for the highest share in the total transport fleet. To reach the climatic targets, the decarbonisation of the passenger sector will be driven by a fast uptake of Electrical Vehicles (EVs) and Fuel Cell Electrical Vehicles (FCEVs).

Scenario DE

The use of electric motors delivers  high efficiency gains, compared to ICE, helping Europe to reach energy autonomy, complimented by the strong development of solar and power. Secondly EVs offer flexibility to the electricity system through smart charging, which becomes increasingly important in a scenario where dispatchable power generation is in rapid decline.

The strong development of common transport modes, such as, train in this scenario will mitigate the challenge of autonomy for long distance travel.

Scenario GA

In this scenario, there is a wider range of clean mobility technologies with fuel cells as a meaningful option for long distance travel, high usage rate and power requirement. EVs offer the most efficient solution for short to medium distance mobility. In parallel the availability of hydrogen supply and transport infrastructure leads to technology development of fuel cell mobility driven by specific segments where driving range, engine power or use intensity matters. Personal mobility benefits from these development and private FCEVs take some market shares especially for long distance travel.

Proposed ranges in 2050

Based on third party studies, ranges for both technologies were defined:

  • Maximum:
    • EV: 96% market share as resulting from the Eurelectric 95% Scenario
    • FCEV: 16% market share in line with the EC LTS 1.5 Tech/Life and Policy scenarios
  • Minimum:
    • EV: 74% market share in line with the EC Policy scenarios
    • FCEV: 4% market share as reflecting a whole electric passenger mobility based on the 96% maximum market share of EVs

From TYNDP 2020, it is worth noting that EV fleet trajectory used a linear progression resulting in too high a market share for EVs in 2030 when considering supply chain effects and replacement rates. For this edition a lower range has been defined for 2030 consistent with existing projection compared the most optimistic sales figures up to 2030 (Eurelectric 95% Scenario).

Figure 07

Figure 7: Market share of EVs in passenger car fleet

Figure 08

Figure 8: Market share of FCEVs in passenger car fleet

5.2 Supply

The range and the extent of available energy sources in Europe are drivers that will shape the evolution of the energy system. The proposed storylines intend to cover contrasted pathways resorting to different technologies, renewable sources and imports.

Wind onshore, wind offshore and solar PV

Wind (onshore and offshore) and solar PV technologies are key components of the future decarbonized energy mix and therefore play a pivotal role in the development of the scenario storylines.

From a modelling perspective, investments in these technologies are available based on annualized cost assumptions and strongly depends on electricity demand level (including electricity for P2X). Apart from these cost assumptions, the geographical investment decisions are further driven by technology and country specific Climate Data. For instance, where offshore wind is not an option due to a lack of coast line or policy measure, the model will naturally not invest in this option. This boundary is reflected in either conditions given by TSOs or the climate data.

Scenario DE

Targeting European energy autonomy based on renewable energy sources requires maximizing wind and solar development. Increasingly triggered by local initiatives solar PV and onshore wind will see the highest development compared to their potential. As a result RES development will be close to the upper range and potentially higher than the level reached in the TYNDP 2020 DE scenario, mainly due to lower imports and nuclear capacity. The resulting variability of the energy mix will require significant flexibility at network and demand level.

Scenario GA

Widening the supply range to low carbon electricity generation and energy imports will provide some room to optimize renewable development at a European scale seeking both cost efficiency and public acceptance. As a result, offshore wind and large scale solar farms will be respectively predominant in the north (e.g. North Sea Energy Hubs) and in the south of Europe. Relatively higher energy imports results in  lower deployment of wind, solar and electrolysis capacity to produce synthetic fuels in Europe.

Proposed ranges in 2050

The following graph covers both technical potential of solar and wind as well as the installed capacities as stated in the main third party scenarios (EC, IRENA, IEA, Eurelectric and e-Highway) approaching carbon neutrality.

Maximum technical potential

  • Solar: 1705 GW6 from the studies:
    • A high-resolution geospatial assessment of the rooftop solar photovoltaic potential in the European Union
    • Solar Photovoltaic Electricity Generation: A Lifeline for the European Coal Regions in Transition
  • Wind: 8362 GW from JRC Technical Report: Wind potentials for EU and neighbouring countries

Highest level in external studies for 2050

  • Solar: 1341 GW (79 % of technical potential) from the T/G El RES+ scenario
  • Wind: 1650 GW (20 % of technical potential) from the EC CPRICE scenario

Lowest level in external studies for 2050

  • Solar: 400 GW from EC Baseline scenario
  • Wind: 600 GW from EC Baseline scenario

The following figure displays the ranges for installed capacities of solar PV and wind (onshore and offshore) from third party studies and the TYNDP2020 scenarios GA and DE. The ranges presented are from various external scenario studies and are substantially lower than the technical potentials for solar and wind, which finally define the boundaries for the modelling process.

6 During our research we encountered one study with solar capacities up to 8500 GW in 2050. Due to this figure being far outside the range of the other sources we encountered, it was not considered in the range for our storylines.

Figure 09

Figure 9: Installed capacities for solar PV and wind generation

Nuclear

Nuclear energy is a low-carbon energy source having the ability to contribute towards meeting EU CO2 emissions targets. Nuclear development is decided by governmental policies at a nation level. It ranges from countries having decided an accelerated phase out of existing units, to countries planning the construction of new reactors. In any case the level of nuclear capacity is likely to influence the European electricity system, as such the top-down scenarios should capture different evolutions according to their storylines.

Scenario DE

The objective of a fully renewable energy mix results in the absence of construction of new reactors and the phase out of existing ones according to national policies.

Scenario GA

Some European countries take the decision to extend the life of existing units and to build new reactors. The objective is to complement RES development with some low-carbon production with some dispatch capability.

Proposed ranges in 2050

Trajectories are based on TSOs data complemented with assumptions on project development and unit lifetime:

  • Maximum: 116 GW with a 55-year lifetime assumption for existing, under construction and plan units when not provided by TSOs. This trajectory shows a capacity decrease down to 2030 then a slow increase up to present level in 2050.
  • Minimum: 25 GW with a 45-year lifetime assumptions for existing units and those under construction.

At quantification stage of the top-down scenarios, the nuclear capacity of each country will be defined as an input of the modelling taking into account the aforementioned trajectories, public consultation results and the latest national policy developments.

Figure 10

Figure 10: Installed capacity for nuclear generation

Energy Imports

Nowadays Europe imports a wide range of energy carriers complementing indigenous production. With higher efficiency and electrification compared to present situation, the need of imports will decrease in the long-term. At the same time some countries over the world consider the possibility to export low carbon and renewable energy.

While top-down scenarios will in the end capture the full energy mix, the storylines focus primarily on methane and hydrogen (including derived forms such as ammonia).

Scenario DE

The reduction in gas demand resulting from deep electrification together with the significant uptake of local renewable gas production, imports experiment a high decrease in comparison to today’s level. Gas imports are assumed to be lower than 35% of present level which was the TYNDP2020 DE threshold already substantially lower than the EC LTS 1.5 Tech/Life scenarios.

Scenario GA

With a more diverse supply mix, gas demand is higher than in DE scenario. With lower uptake of electrolysis within Europe the path to achieve large scale decarbonisation entails a more import-oriented vision. In any case total energy imports stay within the upper range set by EC LTS 1.5 Tech scenario representing a 70% decrease compared to present level.

Proposed ranges in 2050

The figures below illustrate the EU-28 and EU-27 imports of oil, gas and biofuels for 2050 in the EC scenarios and TYNDP 2020 DE and GA scenarios. At first glance, the total imports in the new EC Policy scenarios (REG, MIX, CPRICE and ALLBNK) are within a narrow range of 1850-2000 TWh. The import source in these scenarios does not vary significantly either. Due to higher energy autonomy, the DE 2020 scenario showed the lowest imports compared to EC and GA 2020 scenarios. Furthermore, the type of imported energy carrier differs, with higher oil and lower renewable gas imports in the EC scenarios. These differences in the imported energy carriers derived from the storyline assumptions.

Figure 11

Figure 11: Import of oil, gas and biofuels in 2050

Hydrogen supply

Hydrogen is increasingly becoming part of the national energy and climate strategies of countries across the world7. The European Commission has launched an ambitious strategy on hydrogen. This energy carrier enlarges the range of solutions to decarbonize some difficult to electrify sectors. At this stage it is hard to provide a range for the overall hydrogen demand as it an emerging energy carrier which development depends on a wide range of parameters still to be defined.

7 Hydrogen is mentioned in most of the Member States NECPs and is subject to dedicated strategies by at least France, Germany, the Netherlands and Portugal. Beyond EU a wide range of countries have published national hydrogen strategies such as Norway, Japan, South Korea, China, Australia and California

Scenario DE

In this scenario, hydrogen is mainly produced by electrolysis of electricity produced by European wind and solar capacity. It can be complemented in a limited amount by steam methane reforming of biomethane as an interim solution or biomass pyrolysis. In any cases the European renewable energy potential limits the volume of hydrogen that can be produced. As a result, the available volume will be channelled towards the sectors the most challenging to electrify.

Beyond its market share in final energy, hydrogen can play an important role as a source of flexibility since it is a storable energy in the form liquid and gaseous fuels.

Scenario GA

In this scenario, hydrogen comes from a wider range of renewable and low-carbon sources being in Europe as well as imports.

5.3 Flexibility options

Beyond dispatchable power generation, there are many options to support the energy system flexibility needed to deliver the energy transition. Such options include the use of sector coupling (batteries, P2X) and demand side response. These flexibility options can further be subcategorised:

Batteries used for short term energy storage (e.g. daily balancing):

  • behind the meter batteries (mostly residential) driven by mixed signals (energy market and local drivers);
  • utility-scale batteries driven by the energy market;
  • utility-scale batteries for system services provision;

Demand-side response:

  • the use of flexibility from electric vehicles smart charging (including FCEVs);
  • the use of hybrid heat pump (cf. § 5.1);
  • in the tertiary sector (e.g.  supermarket switching its fridges off for a short amount of time);
  • in the industrial sector (e.g. back-up energy or production adaptation).

Electrolysers

which can adapt hydrogen production to electricity market signals provided that there is downstream flexibility (e.g. ability of an industrial consumer to switch off hydrogen demand or to store it locally or a hydrogen network connecting various sources and storages). Depending on the situation electrolysis can offer flexibility option for all timeframes up to and including seasonal energy balancing.

Flexibility is slightly different to other key parameters in that the development of each flexibility technology is dependent from a wide range of other parameters still to be quantified. In the end it is an output of the electricity market models used to help quantify each of the scenarios. For this reason the present document will focus on the modelling approach of each technology and the priority order consistent with each storylines.

Batteries

The number of residential batteries8 will depend on the penetration of rooftop PV in each country and on a coefficient reflecting storyline drivers. It is expected to be higher in DE due to the offtake of decentralized RES and prosumer behaviour.

Utility-scale battery capacity will subject to the optimisation of the overall electricity system. A benchmark will be made against current studies and will be used to set the percentage relation between market based Solar PV capacity and batteries.

8 Also including tertiary batteries of similar features

Demand Side Response (DSR)

The boundary conditions of smart charging development will be set based on the number of EVs in a country and the related charging infrastructure. The number of EVs will be determined during the quantification of the scenarios together with the infrastructure levels. Once these parameters have been set, it will be then possible to determine a level of flexibility capacity available to the market.

The level of DSR inside the market will reflect the trajectory collection from TSOs, regression analysis and external studies. The regression analysis will be used to set a starting point followed by comparison with external studies and complimented by TSO/DSO input to determine the final values.

Electrolysers

The electrolyser capacity will first depend on the hydrogen demand required to support the decarbonisation of the energy mix. With increasing amounts of variable renewable generation and electrical demand, electrolysers can serve as an additional flexibility source to the electricity system by converting excess electricity into storable energy. In the long term the actual capacity will depend on both purposes and the underlying economic and technical boundary conditions. There are three main configurations for electrolysers:

  1. Supplied by dedicated renewables and whereby the electrolyser follows the production from the renewable sources.
  2. Electrolysers connected to both electricity and gas markets (their capacity and location result from the modelling of the electricity system).
  3. Electrolysers that are on site at end user facilities, and are supplied by the electricity markets (modelled as an electricity load)

Some mixed configurations may develop such as on-site electrolysers with the ability to inject hydrogen in gas network when not directly consumed, or supplied by both on site RES and electricity market.

The combination of the above approaches will determine the electrolyser capacity and the flexibility offered to the system.

Figure 12

Figure 12: Electrolysis capacity for hydrogen and e-fuels

Priority of the flexibility technologies based on storyline narrative

Scenario DE

In this scenario dispatchable power generation becomes increasingly scarce on annual level. In parallel, there is a very high market share of EVs, the development of prosumer behaviours and the need to replace energy imports by synthetic fuels through electrolysis. As a result, each of the three flexible technologies should reach a significant level. Only utility-scale battery could see a slower development.

Scenario GA

In this scenario there is still dispatchable power generation (nuclear or fossil equipped with CCS) to support the development of variable renewables. As a result, the need of downstream flexibility is lower.