Introduction to TYNDP 2022 Scenarios

What is this report about?

Regulation (EU) 347/2013 requires that the ENTSO-E and ENTSOG use scenarios for their respective Ten-Year Network Development Plans (TYNDPs) 2022. The development of the scenarios marks the first step in the TYNDP 2022 process. Defining the scenarios in turn begins with the development of the (qualitative) storylines to be explored. In a webinar on 3 July 2020 ENTSOG and ENTSO-E presented their first ideas for the TYNDP 2022 storylines. Several stakeholders provided comments and feedback. On 3 November 2020 ENTSOG and ENTSO-E published a draft storyline report for the scenarios to be included in TYNDP 2022. This draft storyline report proposes the scenario framework for TYNDP 2022, consisting of one national policy scenario and the storyline development of two top-down scenarios.

The draft storyline report was consulted with stakeholders in a public consultation from 3 November to 15 December 2020. During the public consultations ENTSOG and ENTSO-E received some valuable feedback from a wide variety of stakeholders. We used this feedback to adapt the storyline report and provide additional information requested by stakeholders. The result is captured in this final and definitive storyline report.

The storylines captured in this final storyline report are the foundation of the scenario building quantification phase that ENTSOG and ENTSO-E will perform later this year. This modelling will result in full energy scenarios including accompanying datasets which will be consulted in the Summer of 2021.

Why do ENTSOG and ENTSO-E build scenarios together?

Joint scenarios are a key step towards an interlinked approach to energy system analysis. Joint scenarios allow ENTSO-E and ENTSOG to undertake infrastructure analysis from a common and consistent set of assumptions and data. The TYNDP 2018 was the first time ENTSOG and ENTSO-E cooperated on scenario development. For the TYNDP 2020 the scenario building process was further expanded and improved. Since there are strong synergies and co-dependencies between gas and electricity infrastructures, it is increasingly important to understand the impact of European policies that aim to achieve a carbon-neutral European energy system by 2050.

Joint scenarios allow ENTSOG and ENTSO-E to assess future infrastructure needs and projects against the same future outlooks. The TYNDP 2022 scenarios go beyond the EU-27 to the ENTSO-E & ENTSOG perimeters, which includes members, observers and associated partners. In total over 80 participants, covering more than 35 countries, are directly involved in the process.

Gas and electricity TSOs incorporate the technical knowledge and experience to provide both quantitative and European focused scenarios that demonstrate how the energy transition will impact the European electricity and gas systems; along with an assessment of the challenges for the long-term horizon.

The outcome of the joint scenario development process provides decision makers with important information, as they seek to make informed choices that will benefit all European consumers. Combining the efforts from gas and electricity TSOs offers ENTSOG and ENTSO-E an opportunity to leverage cross-sectorial and country specific knowledge and expertise that would otherwise be missing. Joint working provides access to a broader range of stakeholders who are actively participating in the energy sector. The scenario building process for TYNDP 2022 builds on the work from previous editions and aims to continually improve the overall quality, level of detail and transparency. The purpose is to grant stakeholders access and enable the use of scenario data to understand what is required to deliver a cleaner and better energy system for everyone of Europe.

What is the goal of the TYNDP scenarios and their storylines?

As outlined in Regulation (EU) 347/2013, ENTSOG and ENTSO-E are required to use scenarios as the basis for the official TYNDP (created every two years by ENTSO-E and ENTSOG) and also for the calculation of the Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) used as an input to assess EU electricity and gas infrastructure Projects of Common Interest (PCI). ENTSOG and ENTSO-E design their scenarios specifically for this purpose. The scenarios are intended to project the long-term energy supply and demand considering the ongoing energy transition. Furthermore, the scenarios draw extensively on the current political and economic consensus and attempt to follow a logical trajectory to achieve future energy and climate targets.

The scenarios and their storylines are designed to reflect the EU and national policy goals and strategies, including the Energy Efficiency First principle, such that they specifically explore the uncertainties that are relevant to the development of gas and electricity infrastructure. As such, they primarily focus on aspects which determine infrastructure utilisation. The differences between the scenario storylines are therefore predominantly related to possible variations in demand and supply patterns. To this end, all the scenarios developed within the TYNDP 2022 framework remain technology, source and energy-carrier neutral.

What is new in the TYNDP 2022 storyline report?

The previous storyline report for TYNDP 2020 was limited to descriptive (qualitative) information only. Due to a lack of quantitative figures some stakeholder found it challenging to comment on the proposed storylines. Based on this feedback the storyline report for TYNDP 2022 now incorporates quantitative ranges for some of the key storyline parameters. These ranges can be found in chapter 5 and illustrate how the storylines differ from one another. It should be noted however that a full dataset can only be provided after the scenario modelling has been performed.

In the public consultation of the TYNDP 2020 scenario report several stakeholders also perceived a lack of differentiation between the scenarios. Although this concern was addressed in the final scenario report published in June 2020, ENTSOG and ENTSO-E aim to further improve this for the next edition.

The joint Working Group Scenario Building (WGSB) extensively analysed the main scenario drivers to be explored in the storylines in order to ensure appropriately differentiated TYNDP 2022 scenarios. More details are provided in chapter 4.

Several adaptations were considered in this final storyline report compared to the draft report released in November 2020. More information on the update compared to the draft can be found in chapter 6.

Where do we stand today in the scenario development process?

The scenario storylines are the first step in the scenario building process. A more detailed description of the complete process can be found in Chapter 7.

Figure 01

Figure 1: Scenario building process