Annex: Storyline matrix
The qualitative levels refer to the storyline differentiation at the 2050 time horizon. Most of the drivers will see an evolution in the same direction when compared to the present situation.
| High level driver | Dimension | Characteristic | Storyline 1 (DE) | Storyline 2 (GA) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green transition | by 2030 | Compliant with Green Deal (–50 – 55 % GHG emissions) | Yes | Yes | |
| Green transition | by 2030 | Reach carbon neutrality | Yes | Yes | |
| Green transition | EU Carbon Budget | Compliant with EU strategies (LTS) | Yes | Yes | |
| Driving force of the Transition | Initiative | Level of Decentralisation (Prosumer vs. Global) | Higher | Lower | |
| Driving force of the Transition | Global Technology and Commodity Trade | Benefits from global synergies (sociatal acceptance and efficincies) | Lower | Higher | |
| Driving force of the Transition | Autonomy | Share of energy autarky | Higher | Lower | |
| Energy intensity | Residential and Tertiary | Behaviour: surface per person | Lower | Higher | |
| Energy intensity | Residential and Tertiary | Behaviour: share of homeoffice | Higher | Lower | |
| Energy intensity | Residential and Tertiary | Level of energy efficient consumer behaviour (lower room temperature) | Higher | Lower | |
| Energy intensity | Residential and Tertiary | Level of energy efficient consumer behaviour (electric appliances) | Higher | Lower | |
| Energy intensity | Residential and Tertiary | Level of renovation rate | Higher | Lower | |
| Energy intensity | Transport | Level of public/shared transport (occupation per car | Higher | Lower | |
| Energy intensity | Transport | Number of traveled km per person (including vacation, trade and work) | Lower | Higher | |
| Energy intensity | Transport | Share of autonomous vehicles | Similar | Similar | |
| Energy intensity | Transport | Share of non-motorised transport | Higher | Lower | |
| Energy intensity | Industry | Growth of industry (on shoring, export) | Lower | Higher | |
| Energy intensity | Industry | Raw materials and feedstock (focus on non-energy fuels) | Lower | Higher | |
| Energy intensity | Industry | Data centres | Similar | Similar | |
| Energy technologies | Low Temperature Heat Demand | District heating (circularity) | Higher | Lower | |
| Energy technologies | Low Temperature Heat Demand | Small scale gas boilers (households) | Similar | Similar | |
| Energy technologies | Low Temperature Heat Demand | Small scale hybrid heat pumps (households) | Lower | Higher | |
| Energy technologies | Low Temperature Heat Demand | Small scale all-electric heat pumps (households) | Higher | Lower | |
| Energy technologies | Low Temperature Heat Demand | Small scale CHP incl. fuel cells (households) | Higher | Lower | |
| Energy technologies | Private transport | EV | Higher | Lower | |
| Energy technologies | Private transport | FCEV | Lower | Higher | |
| Energy technologies | Heavy goods transport | EV | Higher | Lower | |
| Energy technologies | Heavy goods transport | FCEV | Lower | Higher | |
| Energy technologies | Heavy goods transport | Compressed Methane Cars | Lower | Higher | |
| Energy technologies | Aviation and shipping | Sythetic Liquids | Higher | Lower | |
| Energy technologies | Aviation and shipping | Methane (liquified) | Lower | Higher | |
| Energy technologies | Aviation and shipping | Hydrogen (liquified or ammonia) | Lower | Higher | |
| Energy technologies | Aviation and shipping | Electricity | Higher | Lower | |
| Energy technologies | Industry: high temperature heat | Methane | Lower | Higher | |
| Energy technologies | Industry: high temperature heat | Hydrogen | Lower | Higher | |
| Energy technologies | Industry: high temperature heat | Electricty | Higher | Lower | |
| Energy technologies | Carbon economy | CCS (all sources) | Lower | Higher | |
| Energy technologies | Sector coupling | Share of P2X | Higher | Lower | |
| Energy technologies | Electrictiy supply for direct electricity demand | Solar-PV | Higher | Lower | |
| Energy technologies | Electrictiy supply for direct electricity demand | Onshore wind | Higher | Lower | |
| Energy technologies | Electrictiy supply for direct electricity demand | Offshore wind | Lower | Higher | |
| Energy technologies | Electrictiy supply for direct electricity demand | (New) nuclear | Lower | Higher | |
| Energy technologies | Electrictiy supply for direct electricity demand | Small Scale CHP (including fuel cells) | Higher | Lower | |
| Energy technologies | Electrictiy supply for direct electricity demand | Large Scale CHP (including fuel cells) | Lower | Higher | |
| Energy technologies | Electrictiy supply for direct electricity demand | Concentrated Solar Power | Lower | Higher | |
| Energy technologies | Electricity balancing | Thermal Generation | Similar | Similar | |
| Energy technologies | Electricity balancing | DSR based on Smart Metering | Higher | Lower | |
| Energy technologies | Electricity balancing | Flexible power to heat | Higher | Lower | |
| Energy technologies | Electricity balancing | Batteries (behind the meter) | Higher | Lower | |
| Energy technologies | Electricity balancing | Large scale electricy storage | Lower | Higher | |
| Energy technologies | Electricity balancing | Smart charging | Higher | Lower | |
| Energy technologies | Electricity balancing | P2x | Higher | Lower |
