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Annex: Storyline matrix

The qualitative levels refer to the storyline differentiation at the 2050 time horizon. Most of the drivers will see an evolution in the same direction when compared to the present situation.

Download Annex: Storyline Matrix (Excel, 20KB)
 High level driverDimensionCharacteristicStoryline 1 (DE)Storyline 2 (GA)
Green transitionby 2030Compliant with Green Deal (–50 – 55 % GHG emissions)YesYes
Green transitionby 2030Reach carbon neutralityYesYes
Green transitionEU Carbon BudgetCompliant with EU strategies (LTS)YesYes
Driving force of the TransitionInitiativeLevel of Decentralisation ­(Prosumer vs. Global)HigherLower
Driving force of the TransitionGlobal Technology and Commodity TradeBenefits from global synergies ­(sociatal acceptance and efficincies)LowerHigher
Driving force of the TransitionAutonomyShare of energy autarkyHigherLower
Energy intensityResidential and TertiaryBehaviour: surface per personLowerHigher
Energy intensityResidential and TertiaryBehaviour: share of homeofficeHigherLower
Energy intensityResidential and TertiaryLevel of energy efficient consumer behaviour (lower room temperature)HigherLower
Energy intensityResidential and TertiaryLevel of energy efficient consumer behaviour (electric appliances)HigherLower
Energy intensityResidential and TertiaryLevel of renovation rateHigherLower
Energy intensityTransportLevel of public/shared transport (occupation per carHigherLower
Energy intensityTransportNumber of traveled km per person (including vacation, trade and work)LowerHigher
Energy intensityTransportShare of autonomous vehiclesSimilarSimilar
Energy intensityTransportShare of non-motorised transportHigherLower
Energy intensityIndustryGrowth of industry
(on shoring, export)
LowerHigher
Energy intensityIndustryRaw materials and feedstock
(focus on non-energy fuels)
LowerHigher
Energy intensityIndustryData centresSimilarSimilar
Energy technologiesLow Temperature Heat DemandDistrict heating (circularity)HigherLower
Energy technologiesLow Temperature Heat DemandSmall scale gas boilers (households)SimilarSimilar
Energy technologiesLow Temperature Heat DemandSmall scale hybrid heat pumps (households)LowerHigher
Energy technologiesLow Temperature Heat DemandSmall scale all-electric heat pumps (households)HigherLower
Energy technologiesLow Temperature Heat DemandSmall scale CHP incl. fuel cells (households)HigherLower
Energy technologiesPrivate transportEVHigherLower
Energy technologiesPrivate transportFCEVLowerHigher
Energy technologiesHeavy goods transportEVHigherLower
Energy technologiesHeavy goods transportFCEVLowerHigher
Energy technologiesHeavy goods transportCompressed Methane CarsLowerHigher
Energy technologiesAviation and shipping Sythetic LiquidsHigherLower
Energy technologiesAviation and shipping Methane (liquified)LowerHigher
Energy technologiesAviation and shipping Hydrogen (liquified or ammonia)LowerHigher
Energy technologiesAviation and shipping ElectricityHigherLower
Energy technologiesIndustry: high temperature heatMethaneLowerHigher
Energy technologiesIndustry: high temperature heatHydrogenLowerHigher
Energy technologiesIndustry: high temperature heatElectrictyHigherLower
Energy technologiesCarbon economyCCS (all sources)LowerHigher
Energy technologiesSector couplingShare of P2XHigherLower
Energy technologiesElectrictiy supply for direct electricity demandSolar-PVHigherLower
Energy technologiesElectrictiy supply for direct electricity demandOnshore windHigherLower
Energy technologiesElectrictiy supply for direct electricity demandOffshore windLowerHigher
Energy technologiesElectrictiy supply for direct electricity demand(New) nuclearLowerHigher
Energy technologiesElectrictiy supply for direct electricity demandSmall Scale CHP (including fuel cells)HigherLower
Energy technologiesElectrictiy supply for direct electricity demandLarge Scale CHP (including fuel cells)LowerHigher
Energy technologiesElectrictiy supply for direct electricity demandConcentrated Solar PowerLowerHigher
Energy technologiesElectricity balancingThermal GenerationSimilarSimilar
Energy technologiesElectricity balancingDSR based on Smart MeteringHigherLower
Energy technologiesElectricity balancingFlexible power to heatHigherLower
Energy technologiesElectricity balancingBatteries (behind the meter)HigherLower
Energy technologiesElectricity balancingLarge scale electricy storageLowerHigher
Energy technologiesElectricity balancingSmart chargingHigherLower
Energy technologiesElectricity balancingP2xHigherLower