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Annex: Storyline matrix

The qualitative levels refer to the storyline differentiation at the 2050 time horizon. Most of the drivers will see an evolution in the same direction when compared to the present situation.

Download Annex: Storyline Matrix (Excel, 21KB)
 High level driverDimensionCharacteristicStoryline 1 (DE)Storyline 2 (GA)
Green transitionby 2030Compliant with Green Deal
(–50 – 55 % GHG emissions)
YesYes
Green transitionby 2050Reach carbon neutralityYesYes
Green transitionEU Carbon BudgetCompliant with EU strategies (LTS)YesYes
Driving force of Energy TransitionInitiativeLevel of Decentralisation ­(Prosumer vs. Global)HigherLower
Driving force of Energy TransitionGlobal Technology and Commodity TradeBenefits from global synergies ­(sociatal acceptance and efficincies)LowerHigher
Driving force of Energy TransitionAutonomyShare of energy autarkyHigherLower
Energy intensityResidential and TertiaryBehaviour: surface per personLowerHigher
Energy intensityResidential and TertiaryBehaviour: share of homeofficeHigherLower
Energy intensityResidential and TertiaryLevel of energy efficient consumer behaviour (lower room temperature)HigherLower
Energy intensityResidential and TertiaryLevel of energy efficient consumer behaviour (electric appliances)HigherLower
Energy intensityResidential and TertiaryLevel of renovation rateHigherLower
Energy intensityTransportLevel of public/shared transport (occupation per car)HigherLower
Energy intensityTransportNumber of traveled km per person (including vacation, trade and work)LowerHigher
Energy intensityTransportShare of autonomous vehiclesSimilarSimilar
Energy intensityTransportShare of non-motorised transportHigherLower
Energy intensityIndustryGrowth of industry (on shoring, export)LowerHigher
Energy intensityIndustryRaw materials and feedstock (focus on non-energy fuels)LowerHigher
Energy intensityIndustryData centresSimilarSimilar
TechnologiesLow Temperature Heat DemandDistrict heating (circularity)HigherLower
TechnologiesLow Temperature Heat DemandSmall scale gas boilers (households)SimilarSimilar
TechnologiesLow Temperature Heat DemandSmall scale hybrid heat pumps (households)LowerHigher
TechnologiesLow Temperature Heat DemandSmall scale all-electric heat pumps (households)HigherLower
TechnologiesLow Temperature Heat DemandSmall scale CHP incl. fuel cells (households)HigherLower
TechnologiesPrivate transportEVHigherLower
TechnologiesPrivate transportFCEVLowerHigher
TechnologiesHeavy goods transportEVHigherLower
TechnologiesHeavy goods transportFCEVLowerHigher
TechnologiesHeavy goods transportCompressed Methane CarsLowerHigher
TechnologiesAviation and shipping Liquids (methane, hydrogen, bio or ­synthetic fuels)LowerHigher
TechnologiesAviation and shipping ElectricityHigherLower
TechnologiesIndustry: high temperature heatMethaneLowerHigher
TechnologiesIndustry: high temperature heatHydrogenLowerHigher
TechnologiesIndustry: high temperature heatElectrictyHigherLower
TechnologiesCarbon economyCCS (all sources)LowerHigher
TechnologiesSector couplingShare of P2XHigherLower
TechnologiesElectrictiy supply for direct electricity demandSolar-PVHigherLower
TechnologiesElectrictiy supply for direct electricity demandOnshore windHigherLower
TechnologiesElectrictiy supply for direct electricity demandOffshore windLowerHigher
TechnologiesElectrictiy supply for direct electricity demand(New) nuclearLowerHigher
TechnologiesElectrictiy supply for direct electricity demandSmall Scale CHP (including fuel cells)HigherLower
TechnologiesElectrictiy supply for direct electricity demandLarge Scale CHP (including fuel cells)LowerHigher
TechnologiesElectrictiy supply for direct electricity demandConcentrated Solar PowerLowerHigher
TechnologiesElectricity balancingThermal GenerationSimilarSimilar
TechnologiesElectricity balancingDSR based on Smart MeteringHigherLower
TechnologiesElectricity balancingFlexible power to heatHigherLower
TechnologiesElectricity balancingBatteries (behind the meter)HigherLower
TechnologiesElectricity balancingLarge scale electricy storageLowerHigher
TechnologiesElectricity balancingSmart chargingHigherLower
TechnologiesElectricity balancingP2xHigherLower