Annex: Storyline matrix
The qualitative levels refer to the storyline differentiation at the 2050 time horizon. Most of the drivers will see an evolution in the same direction when compared to the present situation.
| High level driver | Dimension | Characteristic | Storyline 1 (DE) | Storyline 2 (GA) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green transition | by 2030 | Compliant with Green Deal (–50 – 55 % GHG emissions) | Yes | Yes | |
| Green transition | by 2050 | Reach carbon neutrality | Yes | Yes | |
| Green transition | EU Carbon Budget | Compliant with EU strategies (LTS) | Yes | Yes | |
| Driving force of Energy Transition | Initiative | Level of Decentralisation (Prosumer vs. Global) | Higher | Lower | |
| Driving force of Energy Transition | Global Technology and Commodity Trade | Benefits from global synergies (sociatal acceptance and efficincies) | Lower | Higher | |
| Driving force of Energy Transition | Autonomy | Share of energy autarky | Higher | Lower | |
| Energy intensity | Residential and Tertiary | Behaviour: surface per person | Lower | Higher | |
| Energy intensity | Residential and Tertiary | Behaviour: share of homeoffice | Higher | Lower | |
| Energy intensity | Residential and Tertiary | Level of energy efficient consumer behaviour (lower room temperature) | Higher | Lower | |
| Energy intensity | Residential and Tertiary | Level of energy efficient consumer behaviour (electric appliances) | Higher | Lower | |
| Energy intensity | Residential and Tertiary | Level of renovation rate | Higher | Lower | |
| Energy intensity | Transport | Level of public/shared transport (occupation per car) | Higher | Lower | |
| Energy intensity | Transport | Number of traveled km per person (including vacation, trade and work) | Lower | Higher | |
| Energy intensity | Transport | Share of autonomous vehicles | Similar | Similar | |
| Energy intensity | Transport | Share of non-motorised transport | Higher | Lower | |
| Energy intensity | Industry | Growth of industry (on shoring, export) | Lower | Higher | |
| Energy intensity | Industry | Raw materials and feedstock (focus on non-energy fuels) | Lower | Higher | |
| Energy intensity | Industry | Data centres | Similar | Similar | |
| Technologies | Low Temperature Heat Demand | District heating (circularity) | Higher | Lower | |
| Technologies | Low Temperature Heat Demand | Small scale gas boilers (households) | Similar | Similar | |
| Technologies | Low Temperature Heat Demand | Small scale hybrid heat pumps (households) | Lower | Higher | |
| Technologies | Low Temperature Heat Demand | Small scale all-electric heat pumps (households) | Higher | Lower | |
| Technologies | Low Temperature Heat Demand | Small scale CHP incl. fuel cells (households) | Higher | Lower | |
| Technologies | Private transport | EV | Higher | Lower | |
| Technologies | Private transport | FCEV | Lower | Higher | |
| Technologies | Heavy goods transport | EV | Higher | Lower | |
| Technologies | Heavy goods transport | FCEV | Lower | Higher | |
| Technologies | Heavy goods transport | Compressed Methane Cars | Lower | Higher | |
| Technologies | Aviation and shipping | Liquids (methane, hydrogen, bio or synthetic fuels) | Lower | Higher | |
| Technologies | Aviation and shipping | Electricity | Higher | Lower | |
| Technologies | Industry: high temperature heat | Methane | Lower | Higher | |
| Technologies | Industry: high temperature heat | Hydrogen | Lower | Higher | |
| Technologies | Industry: high temperature heat | Electricty | Higher | Lower | |
| Technologies | Carbon economy | CCS (all sources) | Lower | Higher | |
| Technologies | Sector coupling | Share of P2X | Higher | Lower | |
| Technologies | Electrictiy supply for direct electricity demand | Solar-PV | Higher | Lower | |
| Technologies | Electrictiy supply for direct electricity demand | Onshore wind | Higher | Lower | |
| Technologies | Electrictiy supply for direct electricity demand | Offshore wind | Lower | Higher | |
| Technologies | Electrictiy supply for direct electricity demand | (New) nuclear | Lower | Higher | |
| Technologies | Electrictiy supply for direct electricity demand | Small Scale CHP (including fuel cells) | Higher | Lower | |
| Technologies | Electrictiy supply for direct electricity demand | Large Scale CHP (including fuel cells) | Lower | Higher | |
| Technologies | Electrictiy supply for direct electricity demand | Concentrated Solar Power | Lower | Higher | |
| Technologies | Electricity balancing | Thermal Generation | Similar | Similar | |
| Technologies | Electricity balancing | DSR based on Smart Metering | Higher | Lower | |
| Technologies | Electricity balancing | Flexible power to heat | Higher | Lower | |
| Technologies | Electricity balancing | Batteries (behind the meter) | Higher | Lower | |
| Technologies | Electricity balancing | Large scale electricy storage | Lower | Higher | |
| Technologies | Electricity balancing | Smart charging | Higher | Lower | |
| Technologies | Electricity balancing | P2x | Higher | Lower |
